2026 values and busts in the top 100

Trevor Lawrence is our favorite quarterback to own this year at ADP. He is projected with a statline of 4,453 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 383 rush yards, and 7.2 rushing TDs. We think their offense is going to be top 5 in the NFL based on how they finished the back half of the year, their receiving weapons, and their running game being as consistent as it was to finish the year. We think the risk here is actually pretty low in reaching those stats. The main risk is their schedule: a brutal weeks 2 to 7 after playing the Browns in week 1. A near-400-point projection going off the board around pick 117 is the single widest QB gap in the top 100.

Bo Nix has an improved offense and he is headed into his year 3 season, where we often see QBs improve. He is statted for 4,186 passing yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs, 338 rushing yards, and 6 TDs. He led the NFL in pass attempts last year, so the volume floor the late-round-QB thesis depends on is real, and Denver added Jaylen Waddle this offseason as a genuine target-share upgrade. Note: we have Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix with very similar seasons, just one should have a better passing offense. 370 projected points at a low risk grade based on last year, and while his ADP is outside the top 100, he is certainly a buy. A stable QB1 floor that costs almost nothing, which is exactly what the late-round QB strategy is built on.

Drafted at pick 72 but projected as the QB11, a value gap of roughly 37 spots and one of the widest at the position. This is a rookie-hype fade: the market is pricing in a Year-1 breakout, and while the WORP just clears replacement, the high risk grade and a 76 percent availability flag tell the story of how much can go wrong for his sophomore campaign. The main challenge we have with his projection is the offense is likely to continue only passing at 51% and his overall accuracy was more around 62% (we project 63% completion percentage) and they try to shield his running. Right now, we have him slotted for 217 passing yards per game, 24 TDs but just 553 rushing yards. There is real upside if the staff hands him the keys and the offense clicks early, but at this cost you are paying for the ceiling and ignoring a wide range of outcomes that look a lot more like a streamer. We would rather let someone else bet on Dart both staying healthy and him running at the same clip he was last year. Admittedly, the ceiling is high though

Drafted at pick 57 but projected as the QB10 with replacement-level WORP. We project 4,245 yards and roughly 36 TDs and 12 INTs, but essentially zero rushing, so he gets none of the rushing-QB premium that props up the top tier. A pure-pocket passer carries all of his value in passing volume, and our availability flag (around 65 percent) says we could expect some missed time after he played just 8 games last year, which craters the season total with no rushing floor to cushion it (though this was calculated as if he plays the full season). The reality is that in a world with QBs such as Allen, Maye, TLaw, Lamar, Hurts, Herbert, Nix, Daniels... not having rushing upside severely limits the ceiling. To hit his ADP, he'd need over 4500 yards passing, while possible it's not something I want to bet on.

A quiet value the room keeps passing on. We have him going around pick 72 with a workload worth a +75 WORP, well ahead of his draft cost. Montgomery is the goal-line and early-down hammer in a Houston offense we expect to score more, and that WORP reflects a genuinely valuable role, not just touchdown luck. He cleared 14-plus games in three straight seasons, so the durability is bankable. A locked-in starter's workload at a seventh-round price is the kind of gap that quietly wins drafts while the room reaches for names.

This one is scary to project, but we love Swift. He has always been a 1,000-yard player and last year was great for efficiency - an elite PFF rushing grade and near the top of the league in rushing EPA in Ben Johnson's scheme. He has competition with Kyle Monangai that could decimate this projection; the one place to push back is the rush-attempt share, since Monangai trended toward a larger committee role late last year. He is projected for 1,158 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 38 receptions, and 2 receiving TDs in a high-powered offense. Swift graded as the strongest durability mark among our RB values - low risk, +96 WORP, drafted outside the top 60.

Read this one carefully: Love still grades as a strongly positive-WORP player, so this is not us disliking him - it is purely a value-vs-ADP call. A pick-18 ADP against our rank of 49 is a steep tax, and we just think he is being overdrafted. The rookie is being valued like a locked-in bell cow, but we expect Arizona to lean on Tyler Allgeier more than people think in year one, which caps the workload the price assumes. Great prospect, real role, but you are paying a second-round price for a backfield we see as more of a committee than the market does.

Drafted at 78, projected as the RB33 with replacement-level WORP. We see Carolina's backfield as a committee that caps his ceiling, and the projection lands him well outside startable RB range despite the draft cost. He will get touches, but not the bell-cow share the price assumes, and we would rather take our RB swings later for free.

The single biggest WR value on the board, and the case got louder this offseason. BTJ is a buy-low: after a 1,282-yard, 10-TD, Pro Bowl rookie season, his production cratered to 707 yards and 2 TDs in 2025, and the down year dragged his ADP all the way to pick 101 - which is exactly the opening. We project a rebound to WR1 territory (248 points, +92 WORP), and the minicamp reviews are flat-out hot: beat writers have called him the offseason program's MVP, the staff has repeatedly praised the rebuilt chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, and Thomas has been toasting corners deep in the exact downfield role the offense is now scheming for him. Why we expect the bounce-back: he is healthy and motivated after a year of trade rumors, the talent that produced a top-tier deep-threat rookie season never disappeared, and a Lawrence-led offense we project as top-5 funnels him a secure target share. The 2025 dip looks like the outlier, not the new baseline.

Waddle is now in Denver, tied to Bo Nix's league-leading attempt volume, and we project a real jump from last year - a 265-point full PPR projection and +109 WORP that lands him as a back-end WR1 while the room drafts him as a WR3 around pick 62. His projected target share in Denver sits below his late-2025 Miami peak, which is sensible given competition from Sutton and the rest of the room, and we apply about a 14 percent discount for missed-time risk - already handled, not an open flag. Reliable target share at a discount.

Wildly overpriced, not bad - that is exactly what the numbers say. A pick-11 ADP against our rank of 34 is the widest elite-receiver gap on the board; the WORP is strongly positive, but you are paying alpha-WR1 cost for WR18 value. Here is the real reason we are out at this price: when we line up George Pickens' 2025 advanced profile against Lamb's healthy 2024, Pickens grades out better. That tells us Pickens is the true alpha in this offense now, not the complementary piece the market assumes - which caps Lamb's target dominance and TD equity at exactly the cost where you need every bit of it. Good player, wrong price, and possibly the second option on his own team.

A pick-44 ADP against our rank of 74, and a genuine production fade. Two things drive it. First, Adams has been heavily touchdown-dependent - strip the scores and the underlying volume and efficiency do not support his name-brand cost, and TDs are the least sticky thing to bank on year over year. Second, the Rams added Myles Garrett to the defense, and a better defense flips game scripts: more leads mean more clock-killing runs and fewer pass attempts in exactly the positive scripts that used to inflate his line. Less passing volume plus regression on the touchdowns is how a WR33 projection ends up well under a fourth-round price.

The biggest value at any position in the top 100 - a top-five tight end by our projections, sliding to an ADP of 154. WORP of +80 at a position this thin is enormous. He is the clear No. 2 target in a high-value Buffalo passing game, the room was not reinforced, and the talent is intact. The risk grade is high - we apply about a 27 percent discount for the recurring soft-tissue and knee issues, putting him around 73 percent available - but the price is effectively free for genuine TE1 upside. If you wait on tight end, this is the dart throw that returns a starter.

The second-biggest TE value, and a far steadier profile than the price suggests. Johnson is going essentially undrafted at pick 166, yet we have him as a back-end TE1 with a +60 WORP. He is a target magnet in the New Orleans offense, and unlike most of the deep-TE pool he is a reliability play, not a lottery ticket - 17 games last year and a Mod risk grade. At a position where most managers stream replacement-level bodies, a projected TE1 you can grab in the last few rounds is pure roster math working in your favor.

A value bust, not a knock on the player: drafted as a clear starter around pick 74, but projected as the TE17 with a WORP that barely clears replacement. His efficiency actually held up, so this is an opportunity problem, not an ability one - Detroit's crowded, run-leaning, multi-weapon offense simply doesn't funnel enough targets his way to support TE1 value, and a 9-game 2025 adds a durability wrinkle. We see low-end production at a price that assumes a return to his rookie ceiling.

A nuance worth flagging: Warren still grades as a positive-WORP player, and we like him - this is purely a value-vs-ADP call. A pick-47 ADP against our rank of 61 means you are paying a top-6 TE price for production we see a tier lower. He is a fine player and a fine real-life rookie, just not worth reaching for when the values above him are going rounds later. Good player, taxed price.